Client Concern with Real Estate Market

Comment from a client:

Sorry for not getting back with you, we have been kind of watching the

market and continue to see prices drop. We have decided just to wait.

I am just thankful that I have a nice house with equity. We will keep

you posted if things start to improve with time.Thanks for your help.

Sorry to see that the house we liked so much sold but that's good for

you and for the builder. It is a beautiful house and will make a

wonderful home for that lucky someone.

Mike

Mike,

I can certainly empathize with your feelings and sense of the market. With the Media's constant advertising of Gloom & Doom and the New President saying the word "crisis" 25 times during his address to Congress, it is a wonder anybody gets out of bed in the morning!

With that said I need to make you understand the dynamics of the actual situation we are in. 1st of all we need to analyze why the President appears so negative about the economy. He needs to sell the Stimulus package and the ONLY way anyone is going to sell the American Public on a 2 Trillion Stimulus Package and a 3.5 Trillion 2009 Budget, is to make the country believe that if we don't pass it , we are a doomed Nation. Once this legislation is approved and passed you will see a more positive note coming from Washington and the Media. ...and we will see what is going to appear like a start of a recovery.

We are entering into a Window of opportunity to get into your ideal home in the next 12 months before the start of massive inflation which will be the by-product of massive deficit spending.

So here is what I believe is current Reality of Real Estate in our regional area:

Home prices in the "Starter Home Market price range of $100k- $200k have bottomed out. Homes in the $250k - $350k range are nearly bottomed out and are still soft with negotiations still a reality. Homes above $350k are likely to continue to deflate as much of the National economy.

The Boise Valley while not immune to Recession is still one of the brighter spots economically due to it's make up of largely "Service Sector jobs" In other words our economy is not linked to one or two Mega Corporations but to many smaller Service Sector jobs. People don't move to Idaho for high wages and big corporate employment. The majority of people move to Idaho to escape the big city environment for a more normal and higher "quality of life". This has been our reason for growth in the past, and will certainly be our "Silver Lining"even more so in the future, as California's economy and liberal welfare state collapses around their shrinking ability to fund all of their liberal programs.

The result of these dynamics provides us a unique window of opportunity to take advantage of the current economic conditions: Your current home being in the lower price range will stand the best chance of selling for the least amount of discount. It also stands the best chance of selling now with the Stimulus Tax Refund being appropriated by Congress at this very moment. Your move -up home will never be built cheaper than it can be today. Building materials and contract labor are at 1990 pricing. Lot prices have been reduced by 30%-50%. The bottom line and the advantage for you is that New Construction prices are as low as they are going to get. To wait for market to improve will be counter productive, and when it does, the cost of New Construction due to inflation will certainly out pace the appreciation of your existing home. Waiting is a no win situation in our Boise Valley Economy.

Inflation is inevitable due to the massive creation of debt/money which our Government does not have, nor is our economy backed by Gold. Economists will all tell you inflation is coming no question. History will tell you that with inflation comes higher interest rates to try and control it. This is why I am telling you to take advantage of all of these temporary conditions while they are still available, before they disappear.

Today you can easily sell your home with the availability of low rates and Government Tax incentives for first time buyers. (a short term window)

Today you can easily purchase a "New" current "state of the art" home at yester- year pricein a high quality area. (a short term window)

Today you can receive one of the lowest interest rates in the last 40 years. (a short term window)

Waiting is always an option, however it may turn out to be a poor option when confronted with the facts of this massive changing economy. Waiting to see the future is missing the present. Opportunity is always in the present. They say hind site is 20/20 and always easy. Foresight is for gamblers and risk takers and is always hard. Winners use hind sight for history to forecast the future - then take acceptable risks to take advantage of dis-advantaged situations.

As Professional Real Estate leaders with over 3 decades of experience, we do not have a crystal ball, however we are in the forefront - the trenches of the market - and we have the best view of the future. From this vantage point it is clear that the greatest time of opportunity is in the midst of a bottoming market - before the recovery.

At the end of the day - the bottom line is you are gambling either way. You can choose to gamble with your fear and frustration and do nothing - or you can gamble with your faith and hope and the best information available and go forward. We believe in and provide the latter - The choice is always up to you!

Dale Alverson

43 Degrees North Real Estate

35 year Career Realtor

20 year Certified Buyer Broker Designee

35+ years Representing Clients - not sales!

Free 1 Hour Consultation upon request